Conspiracy theories

 

Conspiracy theories I am not one for conspiracy theories surrounding Covid, but sometimes you come across passages when reading various books and you can't help but wonder if there is something more going on than meets the eye. I have been revisiting a book called the 'Sovereign Individual' written in 1997 (24 years ago!) by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg (yes, he is the father of that rather cringe worthy politician Jacob Rees-Mogg and ex-editor of The Times newspaper).   The book is about the rise of the Information Age, the internet and the effect it would have on all our lives, the politics and the actions that individuals and governments will need to take as a result of its impact on our lives. For the record, I don't agree with the general conclusion that one should seek out tax havens and move ourselves and our money until we find the lowest tax jurisdiction that will host us (that's the general theme of the book). But the book itself reads like a prophecy for the future. Its conclusions are eerily accurate. To put this into context, a few things about the internet in 1997:  Google.com did not exist In January 1996 there were only 100,000 websites globally. In 2008 there were more than 160 million. The web browser of choice was Netscape Navigator, followed by Microsoft Internet Explorer as a distant second. Do you remember dial-up internet connections, when it took about 5 minutes to load an internet page? Well, highly modern 56Kbps modems arrived in 1997. In 1997 Steve Jobs returned to Apple to take it over after being ousted by the directors years earlier. So, I think we can agree that the internet was in its infancy in 1997!!  In the book, they talk about how the internet will allow individuals and money to become globally mobile and neither will be bound by state borders as they previously had (that sounds about right). This would result in governments needing to find ways to restrict capital and labour flows across national borders.  One hypothesis that they come up with to deal with this does make you wonder if they had a crystal ball for the future. Read the text below:  The wealthy OECD countries impose heavy tax and regulatory burdens upon individuals doing business within their borders. These costs may have been tolerable when the OECD nation-states were the only jurisdictions in which one could do business and reside at a reasonable level of comfort. That day has passed. The premium paid to be taxed and regulated as a resident of the richest nation-states no longer repays its cost. It will be ever less tolerable as competition between jurisdictions intensifies. Those with the earnings ability and capital to meet the competitive challenges of the Information Age will be able to locate anywhere and do business anywhere. With a choice of domiciles, only the most patriotic or stupid will continue to reside in high-tax countries. For this reason, it is expected that one or more nation-states will undertake covert action to subvert the appeal of transience. Travel could be effectively discouraged by biological warfare, such as the outbreak of a deadly epidemic. This could not only discourage the desire to travel, it could also give jurisdictions throughout the globe an excuse to seal their borders and limit immigration.  It does make me wonder if someone read this book and then decided to run with it as an idea! Quite eerie in its accuracy.

SIGN UP TO MY EZINE.  If you are not already on my automatic E-zine mailing list, just add yourself HERE

There is a new technocrat government in Italy!

 

I thought I would write about the colour yellow in this E-zine. 

I never knew how much I liked the colour yellow. It had never really come on my radar until Lazio moved into 'zona gialla' again on the 1st February. 

This lockdown has been quite challenging in many ways but it has really made me appreciate the small things which enrich our daily/weekly/monthly lives and break the daily monotony. For me, it's those meals out with family, friends and clients, those mid-week trips to the cinema to see a film that has been newly released or a special theatre trip because some performing artists are in town.  And I have to admit (I never thought I would ever write this) that I actually miss those kids parties when the parents lurk around at the back of the room talking and  the fathers sneak off to have a beer or a glass of wine (or 2).   Oh, and not forgetting those little trips, overseas or in Italy, that have been off the table now for sometime, but are the icing on the cake of life.  I long for the day when I can make, even short trips away, with the family and friends again. 

Anyway, enough of my Covid colour thinking.

Well, if you have missed it, there is a new technocrat government in Italy. This time under the supervision of Mario Draghi. For anyone who is unfamiliar with Mario Draghi, he is the last ex-President of the EU Central Bank, previous head of the Bank of Italy, previous economist for Goldman Sachs and has also worked at the World Bank.   If you are interested, he also has a house somewhere near Citta delle Pieve, Umbria.

What's interesting about this appointment is that he was the man who pretty much stopped the EU crisis  of 2012, merely by announcing that the 'Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough'.   With those words he stopped the attack on Spanish and Italian government debt, being launched at the time by the worlds financiers, and prevented a complete meltdown when Greece was also in fear of default. 

There is no doubt that 'Super Mario' (his other widely known name) is a very adept politician and economist who has the ability and knowledge to get Italy out of it's current predicament, as a result of Covid.   

It was Matteo Renzi who pulled out of the coalition which was keeping Giuseppe Conte in power and managing the Covid crisis, but Renzi being a 'supposed' pro-business politician didn't think that Conte had the ability to manage the €266 billion Recovery fund which is shortly arriving from the EU, and which will be used to help rebuild the economy.   I happen to agree (although I think Conte has done a good job of managing the pandemic in Italy) and also believe that Mario Draghi is probably the best person for the job. 

However, to what extent he will be prevented from doing so by the warring parties is anyone's guess.  He is a no nonsense economist/politican and has already made it clear that he wants to surround himself with capable people, and not politicans who are looking to advance themselves or their parties. 

I suspect he will get some new and interesting projects approved by Parliament, but like the technocrats before him (Letta and Monti), will eventually be stopped by the other political parties who will want to merely push their own agenda and take power. 

But, let's not take this step for granted because if Mario Draghi is given enough leash to enact some serious recovery plans, and real effects can be seen, then they may give him more leash than we might expect.   

My thinking is that alot of the burden will now be placed on his shoulders, and should he be able to magic the economic bunny out of the crumbling Italian economy top hat then the other political parties will quickly amass like children around a fresh birthday cake, to benefit from his good work and look to ultimately grasp power and take all the credit.

It's all to play for.  I shall be watching this one carefully. I think like most of us who have been living in Italy for quite some time, we really hope that something significant happens because we see so much potential for change. 

SIGN UP TO MY EZINE.  If you are not already on my automatic E-zine mailing list, just add yourself HERE

DISCLAIMER The views expressed here are my own. They are not necessarily shared by The Spectrum IFA group or any other company named or implied. They are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. Neither should this be considered tax advice. If in doubt we always recommend that you consult a suitably qualified tax consultant. References to specific securities or companies are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities REGULATORY INFORMATION

An Update on Life in Lockdown

CLICK HERE FOR LINK https://vimeo.com/405325844

I hope you enjoyed the video. I just wanted to find a way to say hello to you all. 

Coronavirus...stay safe!

As I write, the financial markets are entering free fall due to the events surrounding coronavirus in the last few weeks, no more so than in Italy. 

Life in the time of coronavirus

As I write this blog financial markets are entering free fall due to the events surrounding coronavirus in the last few weeks, no more so than in Italy.